Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events

by Edward R. Dewey with Og Mandino

Overview

Published in 1971 by Hawthorn Books, this book presents the life work of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Funded by a $500,000 grant from the W. Clement and Jessie V. Stone Foundation, the research spans biological, sociological, economic, and financial cycles, seeking to identify universal rhythmic patterns in nature and human affairs.

Natural Cycles

The book documents cycles across the natural world: the 9.6-year cycle in lynx abundance (1735-1969), the 9.6-year cycle in Atlantic salmon (1880-1956), cycles in brain waves, and various biological rhythms. These natural cycles establish the premise that rhythmic patterns are fundamental to nature.

Human and Social Cycles

Dewey presents cycles in mass human behavior: the 18.2-year cycle in U.S. marriage rates and immigration, cycles in church membership, crime rates, death rates, and a remarkable chart of "mass human excitability" spanning from 500 B.C. to 1922.

Economic and Production Cycles

The book documents cycles in economic activity: the 6-year cycle in GE orders, 5.5-year cycle in airplane traffic, 6.4-year cycle in aluminum production, 18.5-year cycle in real estate activity, and various cycles in steel, cigarettes, wheat, and life insurance sales.

Financial Market Cycles

Most relevant to traders, Dewey presents: Benner's 9-year cycle in pig-iron prices (1834-1900), the 54-year Kondratieff wave in European wheat prices (1513-1856), and various cycles in Wall Street price patterns.

The Ultimate Question

Dewey poses but does not fully answer the question of what causes these cycles. He speculates about cosmic influences (solar cycles, planetary alignments) but acknowledges the mystery remains unsolved. The practical implication for traders is that understanding cyclical tendencies, even without understanding their cause, can provide a statistical edge in timing markets.